Failure in Talks Spells Indefinite Partition in Cyprus, Warns ICG






A leading Brussels-based think-tank has expressed serious concern over the course of affairs in the ongoing reunification talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders, warning that the absence of a resolution at the end of these talks would lead to an indefinite partition of Cyprus, which would not be beneficial for either the Greek or Turkish Cypriots or international organizations such as the European Union and NATO. “Three decades of efforts to reunify Cyprus are about to end, leaving a stark choice ahead between a hostile, de facto partition of the island and a collaborative federation between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities living in two constituent states.

Most actors agree that the window of opportunity for this bi-communal, bi-zonal settlement will close by April 2010, the date of the next Turkish Cypriot elections, when the pro-settlement leader risks losing his office to a more hard-line candidate,” the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a draft report which is expected to be made public in Brussels today.



Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat broke a four-year stalemate on talks in March 2008 and have engaged in about 40 rounds of negotiations to reunite the island since September last year. Talat and Christofias wrapped up the first phase of talks in late August and resumed negotiations in September. Talat hopes the talks will produce a deal by the end of the year so that it will be put to referendum on both sides of the island by early 2010, before the presidential elections in Turkish Cyprus.

The EU opened accession talks with Ankara -- an EU candidate since 1999 -- in October 2005, but negotiations have been progressing slowly amid opposition from France and Germany. The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has been divided along ethnic lines since 1974, and the division is a key obstacle to Turkey's bid to join the EU. In 2006, while blocking eight chapters of accession negotiations with Ankara due to its refusal to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic, the European Council said it would review the situation by the end of 2009. The 2006 European Council decision has been widely considered a strong motive for Greek Cyprus to drag its feet in reaching a resolution before the end of the year.

The ICG underlined the fact that if no accord is reached by April 2010, it will be the fourth major set of UN-facilitated peace talks to fail, and there is a widespread feeling that if the current like-minded, pro-compromise Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders cannot agree on a federal solution, nobody can.

“To avoid the heavy costs this would entail for all concerned, the two leaders should stand shoulder to shoulder to overcome domestic cynicism and complete the talks, Turkey and Greece must break taboos preventing full communication with both sides on the island, and EU states must rapidly engage in support of the process to avoid the potential for future instability if they complacently accept continuation of the dispute,” said ICG in the draft report.

“A real chance still exists in 2009-2010 to end the division in Cyprus in conformity with the long-established negotiating parameters of a federal reunification. The current Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders share more common ground than any of their predecessors and have gone some distance over the past year toward a comprehensive settlement. But failure will mean an indefinite partition of the island, leading to more strains in EU-Turkey relations, new frictions in the east Mediterranean, less EU-NATO cooperation, acceleration of the centrifugal forces scattering the Turkish Cypriots and new risks to the prosperity and security of Greek Cypriots,” the ICG warned.

The ICG report comes only a few days after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signaled that Ankara might revise its pro-reunification stance, in effect since it first came to power in 2002. In his address to the UN's 64th General Assembly last week, Erdoğan warned the international community that the status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) as an independent state will have to be acknowledged if ongoing talks to reunite the island fail.

“Many Cypriots expect that de facto partition would be a benign continuation of the status quo. New dynamics already in play following the Greek Cypriots' 2004 entry into the EU as the Republic of Cyprus show this to be false. Greek Cypriots have become the most visible technical obstacle to Turkey's EU accession process and have eagerly used all the levers available to them to pursue what they see as their national interest and need for justice. Ankara's frustrations are contributing to frictions over offshore oil exploration rights, including in waters disputed with Greece, that have brought opposing gunboats into close proximity,” ICG said.

“Today's stronger, more prosperous Turkey is more ready than in the past to defy the EU and risk irreversible damage to the relationship over what it also sees as issues of national interest and justice. This fault line will be tested again in discussions leading up to December's EU summit, in which the heads of state and government (the European Council) must decide what to do about Turkey's failure to implement its signed obligation to open its ports to Greek Cypriot air and sea traffic